Talk / Overview

PV power forecasting models are predominantly based on machine learning algorithms, which do not provide any insight into or explanation about their predictions (black boxes). Therefore, their direct implementation in environments where transparency is required, and the trust associated with their predictions may be questioned. To this end, a two stage probabilistic forecasting framework is proposed, which is able to generate highly accurate, reliable, and sharp forecasts yet offering full transparency on both the point forecasts and the prediction intervals. Most importantly, a detailed analysis of the model's complex nonlinear relationships and interaction effects between the various features is presented. This allows interpreting the model, identifying some learned physical properties, explaining individual predictions, reducing the computational requirements for the training without jeopardizing the model accuracy, detecting possible bugs, and gaining trust in the model. Finally, we conclude that the model was able to develop complex nonlinear relationships which follow known physical properties as well as human logic and intuition.

Talk / Speakers

Georgios Mitrentsis

PhD Candidate, University of Stuttgart

Talk / Slides

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Talk / Highlights

An Interpretable Probabilistic Model for Short-Term Solar Power Forecasting using Natural Gradient Boosting

With Georgios MitrentsisPublished April 27, 2022

AMLD / Global partners